Nolan Gorman -- Prospect Evaluation

Nolan Gorman, born May 10, 2000, was selected 19th overall in the 2018 MLB Draft by the St. Louis Cardinals after establishing himself as an elite prep prospect. His main credential is elite raw power, demonstrated by Home Run Derby victories at the Under Armor All-American Game and MLB High School Game. However, scouts identified swing holes and pitch recognition deficiencies that project him as a high-strikeout player. His below-average speed and defensive instincts at third base raised questions about positional fit and led some teams to avoid him despite considering him top-10 talent.

In his professional debut, Gorman dominated Appalachian League pitching with a .350/.443/.664 line and 11 home runs over 38 games with Johnson City in 2018. He was aggressively promoted to Low-A Peoria after 38 games but struggled significantly, posting a .202 average with 39 strikeouts in 25 games. The promotion was questioned by some analysts, though he rebounded in spring training 2019, performing respectably as a 19-year-old against upper-minor talent.

Gorman's profile suggests he will need to improve his plate discipline and walk rate to succeed, as holes in his swing prevent him from being a high-average hitter. His likely projection is as a three true outcomes player—power, strikeouts, and walks. Defensively, his limited range and average arm at third base parallel current Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter. There is approximately 50/50 probability he will need to move to first base long-term. The true test of his abilities will come at Double-A, where pitching quality advances significantly.

Nolan Gorman is a 6'1", 205-pound high school third baseman from Sandra Day O'Connor High School in Phoenix, Arizona, widely regarded as a potential top-10 pick in the June 4, 2018 MLB draft. Gorman's primary calling card is exceptional power, which scouts describe as easy power that should translate to games. He demonstrates a short, quick swing and the ability to turn on major league fastballs at age 18, with the ability to hit home runs to all fields. His footwork is excellent and his throwing arm is above average.

However, significant weaknesses temper his prospect profile. Gorman exhibits a stiff upper body that limits his ability to adjust to off-speed pitches, resulting in swing-and-miss issues typical of high school hitters. While he is adequate at third base currently, scouts perceive him as too stiff defensively and project him to eventually move to first base. His defensive range may be a question mark, though his versatility in playing shortstop, second base, and third base provides positional flexibility.

Gorman has been compared favorably to Kyle Seager and Joey Gallo, comparisons that highlight both his elite power potential and his expected struggles with batting average and strikeout rates going forward. On-base percentage concerns are also flagged. Overall, Gorman's prospect evaluation centers on exceptional raw power as the primary asset that could land him in the top 10 picks, tempered by questions about plate discipline, strikeouts, and long-term positional fit.

Nolan Gorman is a 19-year-old third baseman prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals organization playing for the Peoria Chiefs at Low-A level. Gorman displays a large, athletic frame measuring 6'1" and 210 lbs with a strong lower half and room for additional upper body development. His most significant tool is his power, graded at 70 (double plus), derived from his strong frame and above-average bat speed. He demonstrates the ability to generate loft and produce easy power to all fields, though this raw power plays down in games due to contact issues. His hit tool is graded at 50, featuring a slightly open stance with quick hands and above-average bat speed. However, evaluators note his swing can become stiff with excessive length, and while he recognizes pitches well, he occasionally chases secondaries. Gorman is expected to show continued improvement in his hit tool with greater experience against advanced pitching. His baserunning speed is graded at 45, posting a 4.20 home-to-first time from the left side with potential to reach fringe average with maturity. Scout Nathan Graham evaluated Gorman on 07/16/2019 following observations on 5/10/19 and 6/19/19. The prospect carries an MLB ETA of 2021 with a high risk factor and an overall future potential grade of 60.

Nolan Gorman, a 6'1", 210-pound left-handed batter drafted 19th overall by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2018, possesses elite raw power that scouts consider 70-grade or better. He demonstrated the highest average exit velocity (102.1 mph) at the National High School Invitational and won multiple home run derbies, showing his power plays against top pitching prospects and college-level competition.

Gorman's primary weakness is his hit tool, particularly against breaking pitches. At the U-18 World Cup in Thunder Bay, he hit .222/.241/.294 with 10 strikeouts and 4 walks. Scouts noted excessive swing-and-miss at the NHSI, where he was one of only four batters to swing and miss at least 10 times. He also shows vulnerability to offspeed pitches and an expanding strike zone.

Defensively, there is disagreement among scouts regarding his future position. While he displayed above-average to plus arm strength and impressive glove work at third base, increased stiffness observed in spring evaluations suggest he will likely eventually move to first base. Despite hit tool concerns, his exceptional power and elite exit velocity should secure him as a mid-first-round prospect. Gorman is currently ranked as the St. Louis Cardinals' #2 prospect.

Nolan Gorman is an exciting young prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals organization, ranked second in their 2020 prospect rankings. The 20-year-old Arizona native possesses exceptional power potential and demonstrates the ability to hit for power to all fields, with a notably high slugging percentage. His swing mechanics have been refined by the Cardinals, including adjustments to his leg kick, stance, and hand positioning to improve bat speed and consistency. However, his contact tool remains underwhelming, presenting a potential weakness in his overall game. With Nolan Arenado now at third base, Gorman's long-term positional fit with the Cardinals is uncertain, though the organization believes in his potential enough to potentially transition him to second base or corner outfield positions where his arm would profile better. At age 20, Gorman requires additional minor league development to become a more complete player before his expected MLB arrival in 2022.