Michael Busch -- Prospect Evaluation

Michael Busch and Kody Hoese were both selected in the first round of the 2019 MLB Draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers, with Busch picked 31st and Hoese 25th. However, their subsequent development has diverged significantly, with Busch emerging as the superior prospect prospect. The author argues that conference strength matters substantially in prospect evaluation, noting that Busch played for perennial powerhouse North Carolina in the ACC, while Hoese played for Tulane in the American Athletic Conference, which has produced no NCAA Division I World Series championships. Busch's college production of .282/.429/.492 with 32 home runs and notably more walks (143) than strikeouts (101) demonstrates advanced plate discipline and hitting ability. In professional baseball, Busch has maintained strong performance with a .267/.374/.493 slash line, 52 home runs, and 151 walks across all levels, while appearing on multiple Top 100 prospect rankings. Conversely, Hoese's college performance was heavily weighted toward his final season at Tulane, when 23 of his 28 home runs occurred, and he has not achieved Top 100 prospect status. Busch's combination of elite college pedigree, superior minor league track record, and consistent prospect rankings positions him as a more reliable long-term prospect for the Dodgers.

Michael Busch, a Minnesota native and University of North Carolina baseball player, has emerged as a legitimate MLB draft prospect ranked 25th by MLB.com. After experiencing minimal scout attention in high school despite being a top prep position player, Busch enrolled at UNC and has since made substantial improvements. His offensive progression has been dramatic: as a freshman in 2017, he hit .215 with 3 home runs and 22 RBIs across 55 games; in his sophomore year, he improved to .317 with 13 home runs and 63 RBIs in 64 games, while drawing 55 walks. Busch attributes this development to physical and mental growth, shortened stance adjustments, and a refined plate approach focusing on consistent contact rather than power. His best trait is his hitting ability—he uses a balanced approach as a left-handed hitter with good bat control and discipline. Defensively, Busch presents a challenge for scouts regarding position placement. He transitioned from high school shortstop to first base at UNC due to roster availability, subsequently played second base in the Cape Cod League, and was used in left field during fall ball. The 6-foot, 207-pound athlete possesses athleticism but average arm strength, leaving his eventual defensive home uncertain heading into the spring season.

Michael Busch, a Los Angeles Dodgers prospect, has been ranked the No. 2 second baseman in the Minor Leagues by MLB Pipeline's 2023 prospect rankings, trailing only Pittsburgh Pirates' Termarr Johnson. Busch received a 55 overall grade on the 20-80 scouting scale, with standout offensive ratings of 50 hit-tool and 60 power, supported by his approach, balance, hand-eye coordination, and bat speed. His defensive grades are weaker (45 arm, 40 fielding), though evaluators have praised his improvement at second base, with first base and left field being better positional fits.

During the 2022 season, Busch demonstrated substantial offensive production across Minor League levels. After batting .306/.445/.667 with 11 home runs in 31 Double-A games, he was promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City where he hit .266/.343/.480 with 21 home runs. Combined across both levels, Busch slashed .274/.365/.516 while leading all Minor Leaguers with 118 runs scored, ranking third with 70 extra-base hits, fifth with 108 RBI, and sixth with 32 home runs. He also received No. 54 overall prospect ranking from Baseball America and No. 59 from Baseball Prospectus.

With the Dodgers beginning a youth movement in 2023, Busch is expected to compete for a Major League roster spot during Spring Training, potentially as the starting second baseman or left fielder. If he doesn't make the Opening Day roster, he is positioned to be among the first players called up when position player depth is needed. Given his offensive potential, Busch is considered a strong candidate for National League Rookie of the Year if he reaches the majors in 2023.

Michael Busch, a 6'1", 210-pound left-handed hitter born November 9, 1997, was selected 31st overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2019 draft and signed for $2,312,100. At the University of North Carolina, Busch established himself as a skilled offensive player with exceptional plate discipline, posting a .317/.465/.521 line with 13 home runs and 55 walks as a sophomore. He maintained this production in the Cape Cod League, batting .322/.450/.567 over 27 games.

Busch possesses an excellent feel for the barrel and strong strike zone awareness, demonstrated by walk rates of 16-17% in college. He possesses 60-grade raw power and has performed well against quality competition in both the ACC and wood bat leagues. While undersized for first base at 6'1", his offensive profile justifies the position.

Defensively, Busch is a plus first baseman but has played primarily left field during his junior year, where he made routine plays without embarrassment, though he remains a below-average runner with a lengthy exchange on throws. Some scouts have considered him as a potential second baseman option.

In professional play, Busch has struggled at the plate with a .203 average, .301 OBP, and .297 slugging percentage in 118 at-bats. Despite the recent performance, he has maintained top prospect status, ranking as the Chicago Cubs' #4 prospect in 2024 and previously holding similar rankings with the Dodgers organization.