Nolan Arenado -- Prospect Evaluation

Nolan Arenado was drafted by the Colorado Rockies in 2009 as a shortstop with raw power potential. Initially unimpressive at the Area Code Games and fall ball, Arenado significantly transformed his physical profile, developing into a strong, fit 6'1", 210-pound athlete. While his speed remains below average, he exhibits an exceptional throwing arm and significantly improved fielding mechanics.

Scouts identified third base as his likely defensive position, though some viewed catching as a possibility given his muscular build and powerful arm. At the plate, Arenado possesses powerful hands enabling opposite-field power, though concerns exist about stiffness in his swing and his tendency to get too far out front. His breakout performance at the National Classic, where he won most outstanding hitter, elevated his draft stock despite ongoing defensive questions.

By 2013, Arenado had established himself as the Rockies' top prospect and ranked #52 nationally by Baseball America. He received consistent recognition as his organization's best hitter for average across multiple years and earned numerous accolades for defensive excellence at third base and infield arm strength. His professional debut occurred on April 28, 2013.

Nolan Arenado was selected 59th overall by the Colorado Rockies in the 2009 MLB Draft after a stellar high school career in which he hit .456 with 32 RBIs and .517 in his senior year. Coming into the draft, Arenado had experience at shortstop and catcher, leading some scouts to project him as a potential catching prospect with significant offensive upside.

Despite being consistently praised for his offensive abilities, early scouting reports raised concerns about his defensive capabilities. A 2010 ROTOscouting report praised Arenado as "the most advanced hitter I have seen this season" but criticized his awkward footwork, suggesting he might be better suited for first base or left field. A 2012 FanGraphs comparison projected that Arenado would "max out as a steady, average defender" at third base, indicating defensive limitations despite his offensive gifts.

However, Arenado's actual performance in his 2013 debut season challenged these defensive projections. While his offensive numbers were modest—hitting .267/.301/.405 with a wRC+ of 77 and a BB/K ratio of just .32—it was notably his glove that stood out and impressed, contradicting earlier forecasts about his defensive potential.

Nolan Arenado's journey from prospect to star challenges conventional scouting wisdom. In the 2009 draft, the 6'2", 200-pound Arenado was considered a mediocre prospect despite solid high school hitting (.456 in junior year, .517 in senior year at El Toro High School). His scouting report was notably negative on athleticism and baserunning, describing him as 'duck-footed' and 'lumbers.' Multiple teams projected him as a future catcher or shortstop based on his throwing arm and physique rather than position versatility. Seven years later, the assessment proved completely inaccurate. Now 25 years old, Arenado displays a lean, athletic frame and has developed into an elite third baseman with Brooks Robinson-level defensive instincts and a rocket arm. He has become an offensive terror combining elite contact skills with power hitting, while maintaining league-average baserunning metrics. Three-plus seasons into his major league career, Arenado now competes with elite players like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Manuel Machado as one of baseball's best all-around players, vindicating the Colorado Rockies' commitment to a prospect the industry had largely dismissed as athletically limited.

MLB.com's 2009 pre-draft scouting report on Nolan Arenado, then an 18-year-old prospect from El Toro High School in Lake Forest, California, identified him as a strong offensive prospect with significant potential. The report credited him with good hitting ability, above-average raw power, quick bat speed, and a plus arm strength comparable to professional catchers. Arenado was physically described as having a strong build similar to the Molina brothers or Yorvit Torrealba, with athleticism and quick-twitch ability that allowed him to move with agility.

The scouting report projected Arenado as a future third baseman or catcher, noting that while he played shortstop in high school, that position would not translate to the professional level. The primary concern centered on his catching ability, which remained unproven at that stage. The report also identified a tendency to inside-out pitches as a hitting weakness. The evaluator concluded that if a team was convinced of his catching ability, Arenado could potentially be selected in the first couple of rounds of the draft.