Scouting Report: Aaron Nola
Overall
Summary
Aaron Nola, 32-year-old Phillies starting pitcher, has significantly underperformed through 2025-2026 following his 7-year, $172 million contract signed in 2023. In 2026, he has posted a 2-3 record with a 5.14 ERA (later reported as 5.91 ERA), 1.48 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts across 42 innings through 8 starts. His 2025 season was injury-shortened with a 6.01 ERA across 17 starts. Key issues include elevated walk rate (8.2%, worst since 2019), high home run rate (1.50 HR/9), inconsistent performance with blow-up starts, and declining strikeout effectiveness. While he had a bounce-back win against Miami with 6 scoreless innings, he has allowed 5+ runs in 3 of his last 5 starts. The contract is now considered "untradeable" due to its length, declining performance, and no-trade clause. The Phillies may consider a brief IL stint to help him reset.
Strengths
- Bounce-back performance vs Marlins with 6 scoreless innings
- Still maintains 24% strikeout rate despite decline
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